# Political Science 378

## Use Of KP Program And Excel Spreadsheet

In order to do
assignment, you must use the program KP to calculate kill probabilities, and the
Excel spreadsheet emts10.xls to calculate surviving EMT. If you would like,
bring me a diskette and I will give you copies of each.
You can also e-mail a request for the program and the spreadsheet. I will
send them as attachments to my returning e-mail message.

## How To Use KP and the Spreadsheet

- To use KP, just type
*kp*. It would be very helpful if you had access
to a printer.
- To calculate the kill probabilities first reply "y" for use of the
printer, then press the ENTER key. You will be asked to enter the following
information: the yield of the weapon, the CEP of the weapon, the reliability
of the weapon, and the hardness of the target. Reply "y" if you need to do
another calculation. When you reply "n," the program will end and your output
will be printed.
- After you have finished planning your attack, to calculate the total
amount of EMT, start up Excel and read in the spreadsheet. Enter the surviving
number of each weapon type in the Post Attack column with the heading
# of SNDV.
You know you are in the right column if it is shaded.
*Do not change any
other columns in the spreadsheet*.

## Some Hints

I recommend that you proceed as follows.

- First, use KP to calculate all the Pk2,2 values.
- For each attack, rank the attacker's missiles from high to low on Pk2,2
value, also noting the number of pairs of each warhead for each type of
missile. This will tell you the maximum number of silos you can attack.
- Rank the defender's missiles from most to least dangerous. Also note the
number of silos for each missile type; this is the number of targets you must
hit.
- Then start to allocate warheads to silos. Start by going best to best
(best attacking warheads against best -- most dangerous -- missiles).
Calculate how many defender silos are destroyed and how many warheads you have
remaining. Proceed down your lists in this manner. When you are done, you now
know how many missiles remain on each side. For the attacker, this is the
number of missiles that were not fired. For the defender, this is the number
of silos that survived the attack, plus the number of silos that were not
attacked.
- Now go use the Excel spreadsheet to calculate the surviving EMT for each
side.

If you have any problems, contact me.

Richard J. Stoll

Professor of Political
Science

email:stoll AT rice DOT edu